Switzerland

The Eurozone might need a bigger policy toolkit

UBS Latest Views | Apr 10, 2019 at 12:00 AM
  • The IMF has cut its global growth outlook for the third time in six months.
  • Germany and Italy were revised down by the largest amount, both by 0.8 of a ppt to 0.8% and 0.1% respectively.
  • Separately, the Italian government also downgraded its forecast to 0.1% for this year, compared with a previous estimate of 1.0%.

Switzerland

Drama and excitement, European style

UBS Latest Views | Apr 10, 2019 at 12:00 AM
  • * The ECB meets. Nothing is expected in particular, other than the traditional excitement surrounding the color of tie that ECB President Draghi will be sporting at the press conference. The minutes of the last meeting showed an inclination to raise rates at the end of the year. Trade tensions are perhaps worse since that […]

Germany

Road of opportunity: Commerzbank hosts first Belt & Road Initiative workshop for clients

Commerzbank | Apr 10, 2019 at 12:00 AM
  • Today, at Commerzbank’s first Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) workshop, Michael Reuther, Member of the Board of Managing Directors responsible for Corporate Clients, opened the event commenting: “We want to enable our clients to gain better access to the opportunities BRI provides”.
  • In 2018, Commerzbank signed a memorandum of understanding with the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to support projects linked to the BRI.
  • Commerzbank finances approximately 30% of Germany’s foreign trade and is the leading finance provider for corporate clients in Germany.

Switzerland

US consumer faces more tax hikes

UBS Latest Views | Apr 9, 2019 at 12:00 AM
  • * US President Trump has drawn up a little list of things US consumers can be taxed for buying. The latest round of tariffs are directed at the European Union, following a World Trade Organization ruling against subsidies for Airbus. Whether the US president’s newfound enthusiasm for the WTO will last if the WTO rules […]

Switzerland

Damage from fresh EU tariffs can be contained

UBS Latest Views | Apr 9, 2019 at 12:00 AM
  • Investors have become more sanguine about the outlook for global trade amid signs of progress on US–China talks.
  • So it is unwelcome news that the US is considering fresh tariffs on USD 11bn of EU products – from civilian aircraft to a selection of agricultural goods – in retaliation for EU support for Airbus.
  • Past rounds of tariffs from the Trump administration appear to have curbed corporate investment and weakened market confidence.

Switzerland

Economic security

UBS Latest Views | Apr 8, 2019 at 12:00 AM
  • * The resignation of the US homeland security secretary may not seem directly relevant for markets. If it is a signal of a tougher policy in immigration, it may matter. Near-term uncertainty about the Mexican border raises risks for NAFTA trade. That uncertainty has already affected corporate capital spending decisions. * German trade data is […]

Switzerland

Job growth rebounds in March

UBS Latest Views | Apr 8, 2019 at 12:00 AM
  • Nonfarm payrolls increased by 196,000 in March, slightly above consensus estimates and close to the average of 203,000 per month over the last eight years.
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Switzerland

Lessons from two centuries of EM bonds

UBS Latest Views | Apr 8, 2019 at 12:00 AM
  • Emerging market (EM) hard-currency bonds have been one of the best-performing fixed income asset classes globally over the last 15 years.
  • EM bonds’ information ratio, which weighs annualized returns against annualized volatility, has outperformed many comparable developed market fixed income segments in terms of both total and risk-adjusted returns.
  • Notwithstanding defaults, wars, and global crises, the NBER paper finds that the average real yearly return on a global portfolio of hard-currency EM sovereign bonds was 6.8% over the entire sample.