Where is growth going?

| Mar 29, 2019 at 12:00 AM

* Bond markets moved a lot after a weak German manufacturing sentiment opinion poll. Bond yields fell as investors became negative about the economy. At the same time, equity investors have stayed more positive about the economic outlook. * This split in views mirrors a split in the data. Manufacturing sentiment data has been weak. […]

How well are consumers consuming?

| Mar 29, 2019 at 12:00 AM

* Today is a consumer-focused day. Consumer spending numbers come from Germany, France and other European economies. The European consumer (except the Italian, of course) has a lot to be cheerful about. Labor markets are strong. Bank lending is normal. There are localized problems (riots on the Champ Elsysee deter shoppers), but the numbers should […]

Have you tried turning it off, and turning it on again?

| Mar 28, 2019 at 12:00 AM

* In the interminably tedious UK-EU divorce, the following has happened. The UK prime minister will resign if the government deal succeeds, and will stay if it fails. The UK opposition leader backs a referendum if in opposition, but opposes a referendum if in government. Parliament rejects everything. Turning the process off and on again […]

Have you tried turning it off, and turning it on again?

| Mar 28, 2019 at 12:00 AM

* In the interminably tedious UK-EU divorce, the following has happened. The UK prime minister will resign if the government deal succeeds, and will stay if it fails. The UK opposition leader backs a referendum if in opposition, but opposes a referendum if in government. Parliament rejects everything. Turning the process off and on again […]