Zurich, 25 October 2019 – High net worth individuals and business owners globally are slightly more optimistic on the economy and stocks but are concerned about the trade war and holding more money in cash, according to UBS Global Wealth Management’s quarterly Investor Sentiment survey.

The survey, which polled more than 4,600 wealthy investors and entrepreneurs in 18 markets, saw confidence tick up at the end of the third quarter. Fifty-three percent expressed optimism on the global economy and 61% on their own region’s economy. Both figures were up two percentage points quarter over quarter. Fifty-six percent were bullish on their own region’s stocks, up one percentage point.

However, 73% of respondents said market volatility from the trade war concerned them. As a result, 34% said they were shifting more money to cash - making this the most popular reaction to trade developments among respondents. Cash holdings rose one percentage point to 27% of respondents’ portfolios this quarter - much higher than the percentage typically recommended by UBS Global Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Office (GWM CIO).

This tempered optimism was also in evidence among business owners. Thirty-four percent said they were planning to hire new workers, down five percentage points. Forty-four percent said a global recession was highly likely in the next six months. By contrast, GWM CIO sees a global recession as unlikely in the next two quarters, with strength in key areas like US consumption offsetting weakness in manufacturing.

If anything, however, respondents globally were even more concerned about political dynamics in their home market, at 47% of respondents versus 44% who expressed concern over a global trade war. The concern was especially prevalent in the US, with 60% worried about domestic politics versus 44% over trade.

UBS provides financial advice and solutions to wealthy, institutional and corporate clients worldwide, as well as private clients in Switzerland. UBS's strategy is centered on our leading global wealth management business and our premier universal bank in Switzerland, enhanced by Asset Management and the Investment Bank. The bank focuses on businesses that have a strong competitive position in their targeted markets, are capital efficient, and have an attractive long-term structural growth or profitability outlook.

UBS is present in all major financial centers worldwide. It has offices in 50 countries, with about 31% of its employees working in the Americas, 32% in Switzerland, 19% in the rest of Europe, the Middle East and Africa and 18% in Asia Pacific. UBS Group AG employs over 67,000 people around the world. Its shares are listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).