Trend inflation in Russia down to 4.2% in Jan 2020 from 4.75% in Dec 2019

TASS Russian News Agency | Feb 14, 2020 at 1:16 PM

MOSCOW, February 14. /TASS/. The five-year estimation of trend inflation in Russia, which reflects the inflation trend, including mid-term inflation expectations, absolute prices change and monetary aggregate dynamics, slowed down to 4.2% in January 2020 from 4.75% in December 2019, according to the files released by the Central Bank on Friday.

"The substantial decrease over the five-year period is mainly connected with the fact that the increased price growth rates of early 2015 have been removed from the count basis. The impact of that factor on the trend inflation estimation will remain considerable within coming months," the regulator said.

The three-year estimation of trend inflation slipped to 3.23% from 3.27% in the previous month.

"The group of calculated inflationary pressure indicators highlights a lower growth of prices net of the influence of temporary and one-time factors, compared with the Bank of Russia's target. The gradual revival of economic activity coupled with already made monetary policy decisions that influence the economy and inflation with considerable time lags, will contribute to inflation returning to 4%," the Central Bank said.

The regulator projects that considering the current monetary policy, annual inflation in Russia will equal 3.5-4% by the end of 2020 and remain close to 4% in the future.

The regulator started publications of trend inflation in June 2015. The Bank of Russia believes it may be viewed as a long-term estimation of the inflation component and serve as a relatively safer landmark for monetary policy as compared to a more volatile actual rate of prices growth.