Russian GDP contraction in 2022 may be closer to upper bound of 4-6% range, says regulator

TASS Russian News Agency | Sep 16, 2022 at 1:27 PM

MOSCOW, September 16. /TASS/. Russia's GDP contraction by the end of 2022 may be closer to the upper bound of the 4-6% range forecasted in July, though Q2 GDP and high-frequency indicators point to stronger dynamics of business activity than the Central Bank expected in July, the regulator said in a press release following its board meeting on the key rate on Friday.

"With regard to the current situation in the Russian and global economies, the decline in GDP in 2022 may be closer to the upper bound of the July forecast range (-6.0)-(-4.0)%," according to the press release.

That said, the external environment for the Russian economy remains challenging and significantly constrains economic activity, the Central Bank added.

"Q2 GDP and high-frequency indicators point to stronger dynamics of business activity than the Bank of Russia expected in July. At the same time, trends across sectors and regions remain clearly mixed," the regulator noted.

The board of directors of the Russian Central Bank took another decision to cut its key rate at a meeting on Friday by half a percent to 7.5% per annum.