SHANGHAI, September 2 (WNM/Reuters) – China’s Belt and Road Initiative must bring cost-effective new low-carbon methods to developing countries and avoid outdated polluting technologies in order to ensure global climate goals are met, a new study said on Monday.
The 126 countries in the Belt and Road region now account for 28% of global emissions, but on their current trajectory, that could rise to 66% by 2050, researchers, led by Ma Jun, a special advisor to China’s central bank, said.
That could mean global carbon levels would rise to nearly double the level needed to keep temperature increases to below 2 degrees Celsius, a major goal of the Paris agreement.
“If B&RCs (Belt and Road countries) follow historical carbon-intense growth patterns… it may be enough to result in a 2.7 degree path, even if the rest of the world adheres to 2 degree levels of emissions,” the report said.
The research was published jointly by China’s influential Tsinghua Center for Finance and Development, which provides recommendations to policy makers, along with London-based Vivid Economics and U.S.-based Climate Works.
The study estimated that more than $12 trillion in infrastructure investment would need to be “decarbonised”, and called for safeguards to ensure existing low-carbon technologies and practices were implemented, although even that might not be enough to meet 2050 goals.
The Belt and Road Initiative is a Beijing-led programme aimed at boosting economic integration through infrastructure and energy investments in Asia and beyond. Signatory countries account for about a quarter of the global economy.
Although China has promised to decarbonise its energy system, it has continued to approve and finance coal projects, using $1 billion in “green finance” to fund coal-fired power projects in the first half of 2019.
According to a study by environmental group Greenpeace, China has also invested in 67.9 gigawatts of coal-fired power in Belt and Road countries since 2014, compared to 12.6 GW of wind and solar.
China has also been criticised for investing in overseas coal-fired power projects using polluting technology no longer permitted at home.
Li Gao, a senior Chinese climate official, told reporters on the sidelines of a briefing on Friday that as a matter of principle, China would not use outdated technology in overseas projects, but in practice this would depend on circumstances and the actual standards of the hosting country.
The study summarizes:
Most of the world’s focus has rightly been on today’s major emitting countries when it comes to fighting the battle with climate change.
From a forward-looking perspective, however, the biggest climate risk and opportunity lies in our ability to support a low carbon development pathway for the group of more than 120 nations (countries that have signed the B&R MOU with China as of April 2019) that have signed up to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (‘BRI’).
The BRI was proposed by China in 2013, focusing mainly on mobilizing capital for infrastructure investments and improving economic connectivity of these nations, most of which are still relatively low-income, developing countries. The 126 countries involved in the BRI (‘B&RCs’), excluding China, currently account for about 23% of the world’s GDP and about 28% of global carbon emissions.
If their current carbonintensive growth model continues, these percentages are likely to grow dramatically over the next two decades.
Aggregated growth and carbon scenarios for B&RCs have been analysed for the first time by the authors.
The results indicate that, based on historical infrastructure investment patterns and growth projections, key B&RCs are currently on track to generate emissions well above 2-Degree Scenario (‘2DS’) levels, the upper limit of the Paris Agreement’s temperature increase target.
Our estimates show that failure to rein in the growth of carbon emissions by these countries could be enough to result in a nearly 3 degrees of warming pathway to 2050, even if all other countries follow a 2DS pathway.
• The 126 B&RCs accounted for just 28% of emissions in 2015. If they follow the conventional growth pathways (BAU) seen historically and the rest of the world follows 2DS, they could account for 66% of global emissions by 2050 and result in global carbon emissions double the 2DS level.
• If B&RCs follow historical carbon-intense growth patterns (‘Worst in Class’ growth), it may be enough to result in a 2.7 degree path even if the rest of the world adheres to 2DS levels of emissions.
• Annual emissions for the 126 B&RCs could be 39% lower in 2050 than business-as-usual levels, if B&RCs achieved ‘commensurate historical best practices’ (i.e. effectively deploying leading-edge green technologies already in use, at a pace commensurate with their stage of development measured by income per capita).
• However, a best in class growth scenario would still fall short of the reduction required to align with a 2DS, resulting in their carbon emissions still exceeding the aggregate 2DS budget by a huge margin, 17%, or 25Gt, by 2050.
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